Evidence

What is documented.
And what is not.

Twelve sources on the four questions the method rests on. Each with its sample, its finding and its limit. Where the evidence carries no number, none is stated here.


How to read this

Three grades of evidence, made visible.

A figure from a randomised field experiment and a figure from an industry survey are not the same thing. So every source carries its grade.

A
Peer-reviewed
Refereed journal, citable via DOI.
B
Practice publication
Study or standard work from a named publisher with disclosed method.
C
Official statistics
Government or association data with a public source.

Evidence

Evidence

01

How much time does the owner actually absorb?

The question is measurable, and it has been measured — with time logs rather than self-assessment.

  • ABandiera, Hansen, Prat & Sadun (2020)

    "CEO Behavior and Firm Performance", Journal of Political Economy 128(4), 1325–1369

    Sample: 1,114 CEOs across six countries, weekly time capture with machine classification

    17 % of CEOs work in a behaviour profile that does not match their firm. The behaviour pattern correlates significantly with firm performance.

    Open source →
  • ABandiera, Lemos, Prat & Sadun (2018)

    "Managing the Family Firm: Evidence from CEOs at Work", Review of Financial Studies 31(5), 1605–1653

    Sample: Family CEOs compared with professional CEOs

    Family CEOs work 9 % fewer hours. Those hours explain 18 % of the performance gap between the two groups.

    Open source →
  • BPorter & Nohria (2018)

    "How CEOs Manage Time", Harvard Business Review, July–August 2018

    Sample: 27 CEOs, 60,000 hours of time logs over twelve years

    9.7 hours per working day. 79 % of weekends and 70 % of holidays spent on business. 36 % of time reactive, 43 % on their own agenda.

    Open source →

Limit: These studies measure listed and larger companies. For owner-led SMEs they are an indicator, not a transfer.

02

Does systematisation demonstrably work?

This is the question the whole method rests on. It has been answered experimentally, not merely asserted.

  • ABloom, Eifert, Mahajan, McKenzie & Roberts (2013)

    "Does Management Matter? Evidence from India", Quarterly Journal of Economics 128(1), 1–51

    Sample: Randomised field experiment in Indian textile firms

    Introducing structured management practices — documented procedures, performance monitoring — raised productivity by roughly 17 % within a year and produced measurable delegation to plant managers.

    Open source →
  • ABloom & Van Reenen (2007)

    "Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries", Quarterly Journal of Economics 122(4), 1351–1408

    Sample: 732 medium-sized manufacturers in the US, France, Germany and the UK

    Structured practices in monitoring, targets and incentives are significantly associated with productivity, profitability and survival rates.

    Open source →
  • AMabin & Balderstone (2003)

    "The performance of the theory of constraints methodology", International Journal of Operations & Production Management 23(5/6), 568–595

    Sample: Meta-analysis of more than 80 documented constraint-theory applications

    Median improvements in lead time and inventory. The methodological basis for identifying the constraint first instead of improving everywhere at once.

    Open source →

Limit: The Indian field experiment measures manufacturing. The direction holds; the 17 % is not a commitment for a DACH consulting firm.

03

How large is the succession problem in the DACH region?

Publicly available surveys and projections cover different years and markets. They are not a single current DACH survey.

  • BDun & Bradstreet (2021), reported on kmu.admin.ch

    Dun & Bradstreet analysis of all Swiss SMEs

    Sample: 603,602 Swiss SMEs

    In August 2021, roughly 15 % of Swiss SMEs were seeking a successor for their owner aged over 60. For firms with 10 to 49 employees, the share was 15.4 %.

    Open source →
  • CSchwartz (2025), KfW Research

    "Nachfolge-Monitoring Mittelstand 2024", Fokus Volkswirtschaft No. 481

    Sample: Representative survey of German SMEs

    215,000 businesses aiming to hand over by the end of 2025, against roughly 231,000 planned closures. Average owner age above 54, with 39 % already 60 or older.

    Open source →
  • CIfM Bonn (2025)

    "Unternehmensnachfolgen in Deutschland 2026 bis 2030", Daten und Fakten No. 37

    Sample: Projection for the German Mittelstand

    Around 190,000 family businesses facing handover. 53 % go within the family, 18 % to employees, 29 % externally — and only the external route is examined like a purchase.

    Open source →
  • BPwC (2021)

    US Family Business Survey 2021

    Sample: US family businesses; the linked summary does not state the sample size

    34 % reported a robust, documented and communicated succession plan. This does not measure whether any handover documents exist at all.

    Open source →

Limit: Different years, markets and methods are not directly comparable. The US survey is not a DACH rate. None of these figures determines an individual business valuation.

04

What does owner dependency cost at sale?

This is the question with no defensible percentage. Which is why this site states none.

  • BDamodaran (2023), NYU Stern

    "The Difference Makers: Key Person(s) Value"

    Sample: Valuation practice, not a transaction sample

    Damodaran cites Pratt’s suggested 10 to 25 % for private companies, largely at the appraiser’s discretion. Not an empirical discount for public companies.

    Open source →
  • BPratt & Niculita

    "Valuing a Business", 5th edition, McGraw-Hill

    Sample: Standard valuation reference

    Carries the key-person discount as an accepted position in valuation practice, with a range depending on how replaceable the person is.

Limit: Both are valuation practice, not empirical transaction studies. How strongly owner dependency bites depends on the buyer, the sector and the negotiation. Older internal CEOPRENEUR material stated 25 to 40 % here. That figure is unsupported and must not appear on this site.


The rule behind it

Why this page exists.

An earlier version of this site stated percentages for valuation discounts and success rates. They could not be supported and were removed. Since then: no figure without a source of this grade — and where a question has no defensible number, that is what it says instead of inventing one.

  • Every figure on this site traces back to a source on this page.
  • Every source states its sample and its limit, not only its result.
  • Where valuation practice and study evidence diverge, both are stated.

Numbers for your own business?

The diagnostic counts instead of estimating: which processes hang on you, which approvals run through you, what share of revenue sticks to single relationships.